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Macro Bytes returns after a summer break to discuss why the ‘Sahm rule’ isn’t a rule, why inflation has been more volatile and how what happens in Japan matters to global markets.
Chinese data disappointed in July, with the economy expanding at a slow pace. Policymakers continue to take an incremental approach to easing, which is unlikely to spark a meaningful upturn in the economy in the near term.
The Brazilian central bank will keep policy on hold for the rest of the year as a combination of sticky inflation, fiscal concerns and economic resilience reduces the scope for rate cuts in the near term. However, we expect it to resume easing in 2025, as fiscal consolidation takes place and inflation concerns fade.
The rapid depreciation of the Japanese yen has moderated, but policymakers still face difficult choices. The BoJ will publish its plan for tapering bond purchases at the end of July. Tapering may lead to higher bond yields and some support for the currency. But we think large international spillovers will be minimised by tightening cautiously.
The latest episode of our Macro Bytes podcast on thematic investing